The Theory of Thin Slices

My son moved out this week.  He has just been back from his Air Force training for about a week and a half.  He said one morning that he wanted to move out and by that evening, had decided upon a place to rent and was packing his things. It’s nothing personal.  He’s 22 years old and wants his freedom.  I understand that.  What I can’t understand is how he decided to do it and actually found a place in one day.  I would have taken weeks analyzing the pros and cons of each prospect.  

Malcolm Gladwell has an explanation.  He calls it the theory of thin slices.  In Chapter One, Gladwell lays a solid foundation for his theory.  He relates how in one study at the University of Iowa, subjects were given four decks of cards: two red and two blue.  As the subject turns a card over, they either add money to their pool, or lose money.  Of course the objective is to win as much money as you can.  The twist is that although the rewards are occasionally high, the losses in the red decks are very high.  You can only win by selecting cards from the blue decks.  They discovered that after 50 cards, most people start to develop a hunch.  They can’t define it yet, but they prefer the blue decks.  Most people have it figured out and can articulate it at about eighty cards.  That is the learning curve.

The scientists at Iowa also hooked the subjects to instruments that measured the activity in the sweat glands in the palms of their hands.  That is where they realized something very interesting.  They found that the subjects generated stress responses to the red decks by the tenth card.  Gladwell goes on to lay a very convincing argument for what he calls the “adaptive unconscious”.  He believes that we make unconscious (not sub-conscious) decisions based on small bits of information, while consciously we clamor for more information to make a decision.  

Gladwell argues that we can cut through the chase by focusing on certain bits of information that he calls “thin slices”.  Gladwell tells the story of John Gottman at the University of Washington who, by studying thousands of couples can predict with a very high level of accuracy, those couples who will end in divorce.  He watches just a few video taped moments of seeming innocuous dialog.  I won’t divulge the method (go buy the book!) but it is quite interesting.

I teased my wife about her low fat/low carb bread.  I said, “It only has less fat and carbs, because it is thinner slices.”  She shot back that there is just enough bread to do the job.  I can’t argue.  Why do we need more?  My son decided where to move very quickly.  Yes, it could turn out that he is rash and prone to hasty decisions, but in reality, he is usually right.  Is it possible that we can learn to make decisions by focusing on “thin slices” of data?  Can it be that, like my wife’s bread, thinner slices are just enough to do the job?  If so, how do we determine what are the correct slices to focus in on?  

If it is true, how did we get stuck on making conscious decisions based on a glut of information?

Just something to think about… and while you do, I think I’ll go make a sandwich.  Hmmmm!?  Thin or thick slices of bread?  I think thin is just enough…

In the beginning…

 

I am of the opinion that my life belongs to the whole community and as long as I live it is my privilege to do for it whatever I can. I want to be thoroughly used up when I die, for the harder I work, the more I live. I rejoice in life for its own sake. Life is no ‘brief candle’ to me. It is sort of a splendid torch which I have a hold of for the moment, and I want to make it burn as brightly as possible before handing it over to future generations.

- George Bernard Shaw

They say that all good things must come to an end, but before they end, they have to start somewhere.  This is where my blog starts.  Yes, I am doing this because I have to for a class, but I think it is also a good idea, so somewhere inside me, I really want to do this.  Of course, my first thought is why would anyone want to read my thoughts?  I believe that we all have something to offer and I hope that you, dear reader find something of use in my thoughts.  I am not sure, here at the outset, where this will go.  I like to write and hope that someone finds usefulness in my ramblings.  I tend to think out loud and find my thoughts and theories gelling as I write.  Of course, my first goal is to get an A in EDAE 692 by posting my thoughts on Blink by Malcolm Gladwell, but in the end, I hope to pass on the torch…

Why this book?  Why now?  I was looking for several of the books on the reading list, and striking out at the local Barnes & Nobel.  I was drawn to the Psychology section of the bookstore because, as an adult educator, I am really intrigued by the psychology of learning and as a leader, I am intrigued by the psychology of the organization.  There, a little paperback called What the Dog Saw caught my eye.  In the Preface, Gladwell wrote, "You don't start at the top if you want to find the story. You start in the middle, because it's the people in the middle who do the actual work in the world."  That thought resonated with me.  I have always believed in “the Middle”.  I checked the list and that book wasn’t there, but 3 others by Gladwell were.  Excited, I picked up The Tipping Point.  I perused it and found it as compelling as Dog.  Next, I picked up Blink.

The back cover talked about how Gladwell redefined the way we understand the world around us in The Tipping Point.  “In Blink, he revolutionizes the way we understand the world within.”  In the back of the book is a Reader’s Guide, a notion that in and of itself I think is brilliant, but in that guide Gladwell says that Blink is about “two seconds”.  Two seconds in which we draw conclusions. Two seconds to decide.  He talks about intuition, but says Blink is more about rational thinking as opposed to intuition. 

I am at a point in my life where those two seconds are crucial.  I don't have time to waste and need to focus on the quick decisions.  I want... nay, need to understand the "world within."  

As I read this book over the next few weeks, I hope you’ll join me on the journey and hopefully somewhere along the way we’ll light some torches in this dark world.

Dave

References

Gladwell, M. (2005). Blink. New York: Little, Brown and Company

Gladwell, M. (2009). What the dog saw. New York: Little, Brown and Company